Assessing the reaction of the Baltic stock market to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This research aims to assess the impact of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Baltic stock market. To reach this aim, the methods of bivariate (OLS) regression and VAR-based impulse response functions are employed. We use daily new cases of COVID-19 as well as the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases as independent and OMX Baltic Benchmark GI index as dependent variables for our research. The research period, covering data from 2020 March 1^st  to 2020 November 21^st, is divided into three separate periods, reflecting the different phases of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the research revealed that the market reaction differs depending on the period; moreover, the Baltic stock market index was affected by new cases and total cases in a slightly different manner.