Correlations Between Domestic Hot Water Consumption and Changes in Outdoor Temperature

Abstract

Residential–household energy consumption accounts for almost one third of total energy consumption in Hungary. The second largest factor in household energy costs in most European countries is the production of domestic hot water (DHW). According to several studies, the DHW consumption is influenced by the physical environment and climatic conditions, including changes in climatic conditions in the long run.

The present study demonstrates how DHW consumption is affected by changes in outdoor temperature through the example of a housing estate built with prefabricated (panel) technology in Hungary, Budapest. The model, estimating the DHW consumption constructed by regression analysis explains 74% of the values (R² = 0.7415). The independent variable of the model is the outdoor temperature. The source of the data used for the modeling were the National Meteorological Service and the district heating provider supplying the housing estate.

The study also presents the changes in the DHW consumption that are expected to cause the effects of climate change, based on the data from one projection of two regional climate models, the ALADIN-Climate and the RegCM model.

The developed model and the results from the projections can contribute to the planning of sustainable resource management.